Changes in the patterns of animal rabies distribution in Ceará over 21 years

a spatial and temporal perspective, 2003 - 2023

Abstract

Objective: this study analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of animal rabies in Ceará between 2003 and 2023. Methods: Data from the Health Department and the Ceará Agricultural Defense Agency were used. The temporal analysis was performed using linear regression segmented by the Poisson model, and the Annual Percentage Change (APC) was calculated. The descriptive spatial characterization by the municipality was stratified by animal species. Results: 19,249 samples were analyzed, of which 1,377 (7.25%) tested positive, with an annual average of 65.6 cases. There was a significant drop in positivity among dogs from 2003 to 2005 (APC=-69.3%; p<0.001), followed by stability until 2023 (APC=7.35%; p=0.63). Despite the fluctuations, there was a slight increase in positivity in cats (APC=7.58%; p=0.02). Bats accounted for the largest proportion of cases (499; 60.5%), with a continuous increase in positivity (APC=8.78%; p=0.03) and a peak in 2019. Herbivores showed a significant increase between 2003 and 2019 (APC=6.42%; p=0.01), followed by a drop between 2019 and 2023 (APC=-42.05%; p=0.005). There was a higher concentration of cases in municipalities in the eastern (408; 29.6%) and northwestern (359; 26.07%) regions of Ceará. Bats predominated in the east (324; 64.9%), and herbivores were more affected in the south (97; 23.4%) and center-south (75; 18.1%). Conclusions: rabies in wild animals, especially bats, represents an increasing risk. The findings reinforce the importance of the “One Health” strategy to reduce the risks of rabies in vulnerable areas.